Skip to main content
The Actuary: The magazine of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries - return to the homepage Logo of The Actuary website
  • Search
  • Visit The Actuary Magazine on Facebook
  • Visit The Actuary Magazine on LinkedIn
  • Visit @TheActuaryMag on Twitter
Visit the website of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Logo of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

Main navigation

  • News
  • Features
    • General Features
    • Interviews
    • Students
    • Opinion
  • Topics
  • Knowledge
    • Business Skills
    • Careers
    • Events
    • Predictions by The Actuary
    • Whitepapers
  • Jobs
  • IFoA
    • CEO Comment
    • IFoA News
    • People & Social News
    • President Comment
  • Archive

Topics

  • Data Science
  • Investment
  • Risk & ERM
  • Pensions
  • Environment
  • Soft skills
  • General Insurance
  • Regulation Standards
  • Health care
  • Technology
  • Reinsurance
  • Global
  • Life insurance
Quick links:
  • Home
  • The Actuary Issues
  • March 2018
03

Variety show

Open-access content 6th March 2018

“Never think that lack of variability is stability.” Here, Nassim Nicholas Taleb flags a cognitive bias that affects how many of us perceive risks.

2

"Never think that lack of variability is stability." Here, Nassim Nicholas Taleb flags a cognitive bias that affects how many of us perceive risks.


The prevalence of recent memories and positive thinking often makes us underestimate how unpredictable human and natural phenomena are. But every now and then, a dose of reality reminds us that stability is not as common as we thought. In the second half of 2017, a series of high-severity natural phenomena, notably affecting the US, put an end to a prolonged cycle of mild catastrophes. As I am writing this, stock markets are undergoing severe volatility spikes and the upwards trend in developed markets' interest rates is accelerating. The abruptness of these changes suggests many had overestimated the level of underlying stability.

Actuaries and other professionals develop models that aim to explain the potential damage of catastrophes and the moves in financial markets, among others. Those models, along with professional experience, are the basis for risk pricing, investment and management decisions. In the current issue, The Actuary tries to shed some light on those topics: David Braun shares his experience and career progression from life insurance to investment management, and provides a long-term investment perspective on fixed income markets. Arno Kitts presents a simple, yet powerful view of the link (or sometimes lack of) between fundamental valuations and equity prices. And several insurance professionals discuss the impact of natural catastrophes, epidemics and the implications on modelling, pricing and beyond. Although we know that instability will continue to manifest itself in the future, this insight may make all of us better equipped to understand it.


Enjoy the read!


Francisco Sebastian

Editor

[email protected]


This article appeared in our March 2018 issue of The Actuary.
Click here to view this issue
Filed in:
03
Share
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Linked in
  • Mail
  • Print

Latest Jobs

Pricing Actuary (Marine)

London, England
£60000 - £80000 per annum
Reference
119007

Actuarial Manager - Reserving & Capital

England, London
£80000 - £110000 per annum
Reference
119006

Capital Actuarial Analyst

London (Central)
Up to £45000.00 per annum
Reference
119005
See all jobs »
 
 
 
 

Sign up to our newsletter

News, jobs and updates

Sign up

Subscribe to The Actuary

Receive the print edition straight to your door

Subscribe
Spread-iPad-slantB-june.png
​
FOLLOW US
The Actuary on LinkedIn
@TheActuaryMag on Twitter
Facebook: The Actuary Magazine
CONTACT US
The Actuary
Tel: (+44) 020 7880 6200
​

IFoA

About IFoA
Become an actuary
IFoA Events
About membership

Information

Privacy Policy
Terms & Conditions
Cookie Policy
Think Green

Get in touch

Contact us
Advertise with us
Subscribe to The Actuary Magazine
Contribute

The Actuary Jobs

Actuarial job search
Pensions jobs
General insurance jobs
Solvency II jobs

© 2020 The Actuary. The Actuary is published on behalf of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries by Redactive Publishing Limited, Level 5, 78 Chamber Street, London, E1 8BL. Tel: 020 7880 6200