Skip to main content
The Actuary: The magazine of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries - return to the homepage Logo of The Actuary website
  • Search
  • Visit The Actuary Magazine on Facebook
  • Visit The Actuary Magazine on LinkedIn
  • Visit @TheActuaryMag on Twitter
Visit the website of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Logo of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

Main navigation

  • News
  • Features
    • General Features
    • Interviews
    • Students
    • Opinion
  • Topics
  • Knowledge
    • Business Skills
    • Careers
    • Events
    • Predictions by The Actuary
    • Whitepapers
    • Moody's - Climate Risk Insurers series
    • Webinars
    • Podcasts
  • Jobs
  • IFoA
    • CEO Comment
    • IFoA News
    • People & Social News
    • President Comment
  • Archive
Quick links:
  • Home
  • The Actuary Issues
  • September 2016
09

Why leave climate change risk evidence unexamined?

Open-access content Wednesday 31st August 2016 — updated 5.50pm, Wednesday 29th April 2020

The 2012 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)


The 2012 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says:

"There is medium evidence and high agreement that long-term trends in normalised losses have not been attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change." (My emphasis.)

"The statement about the absence of trends in impacts attributable to natural or anthropogenic climate change holds for tropical and extratropical storms and tornados."

"The absence of an attributable climate change signal in losses also holds for flood losses" (taken from chapter four of the 2012 report Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation). 

Unfortunately, the IPCC's Summary for Policymakers does not contain these words. The IPCC is generally considered to be the main authority on climate change. The media focuses on the woolly words in the 'summary' and reports the solemn agreement from international leaders at climate change conferences. This should not be sufficient reason for the alarmist (defensive?) attitude to weather-related disaster risks in proclamations from institutions like the Bank of England and the Prudential Regulation Authority.

Consequently, actuaries should be wary of how they apply the suggestions made in The Actuary's July article 'Climate change impact on financial institutions' by Sharanjit Paddam and Kate Mackenzie (bit.ly/2b14Gj4).

If the result is increases in insurance premiums based on apocalyptic disaster forecasts found to be unreasonable (for example, if failing to take account of the IPCC science detail), this will not be good for the profession. Perhaps it is time for the IFoA to address the uncertainties in climate science and its failure to validate models. Continuing with a defence of relying on the science of another profession - when actuaries have the capabilities of examining it - is already uncomfortable for many, and may be held to be the equivalent of Nelson's turning a blind eye - without the favourable outcome.


Geoff Dunsford

11 July 2016

This article appeared in our September 2016 issue of The Actuary .
Click here to view this issue

You may also be interested in...

Climate change risk evidence: anticipating risks and taking action as corroboration increases

In response to Geoff Dunsford’s letter ‘Why leave climate change risk evidence unexamined?’
Wednesday 31st August 2016
Open-access content

The triple lock

Baroness Altmann’s proposal to abolish the triple lock has merit, but her suggestion that pensions should undoubtedly be protected by a double lock is not supported by any logic.
Wednesday 31st August 2016
Open-access content
money

DB pension deficit jumps by £100bn in a month

The pension black hole of UK’s defined benefit (DB) schemes grew by £100bn in the last month alone, bringing the total deficit to £710bn, according to PwC’s Skyval Index.
Thursday 1st September 2016
Open-access content
coin

FCA sets out expectations on Pension Wise under secondary annuities

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has launched a consultation on how the free guidance service Pension Wise should prepare for the secondary annuity market.
Thursday 8th September 2016
Open-access content
135

Low coverage from Italy earthquake protects insurers from heavy losses

Insured losses caused by an earthquake in Italy last month will be low, owing to very limited insurance penetration, according to Impact Forecasting, Aon Benfield’s catastrophe model development team.
Friday 9th September 2016
Open-access content

Calling all Zurich-based members

Calling all Zurich-based members
Wednesday 31st August 2016
Open-access content

Latest from September 2016

2

US and Caribbean hurricanes could result in $145bn of insured losses

The combined insured losses incurred from Hurricane Maria, Irma, and Harvey, could reach up to $145bn (£108bn), according to estimates from catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide.
Tuesday 26th September 2017
Open-access content
head

DC savers sleepwalking into a pensions black hole

Savers relying on a defined contribution pension are “sleepwalking” into a pensions black hole, claims a leading asset manager.
Thursday 29th September 2016
Open-access content
2

Don't increase motor insurance in Autumn Statement, says RAC

The RAC has joined those calling on the Chancellor not to increase IPT in his Autumn Statement this November.
Thursday 29th September 2016
Open-access content

Latest from no_opening_image

TPR publishes coronavirus guidance

The Pensions Regulator (TPR) has published guidance to help UK pension trustees, employers and administrators deal with the financial and regulatory risks posed by coronavirus.
Monday 23rd March 2020
Open-access content
web_p24_cat-and-fish_iStock-483454069.png

Sensitivity analysis: swimming lessons

Silvana Pesenti, Alberto Bettini, Pietro Millossovich and Andreas Tsanakas present their alternative approach to sensitivity analysis
Wednesday 4th March 2020
Open-access content
ta

IFoA adjudication panel: Mr Jack Wicks, student

On 30 October 2019 the Adjudication Panel considered an allegation of misconduct against Mr Jack Wicks (the respondent).
Friday 28th February 2020
Open-access content

Latest from missing_standfirst

news in brief

March news in brief

Paper: A Cashless Society in 2019 Cash is under pressure. A tense 2018 led to a tumultuous 2019: Facebook's announcement of plans to launch its Libra cryptocurrency with a consortium of companies united all regulators against the project.
Friday 28th February 2020
Open-access content
2

Forging new paths

The Terminator is coming!  At least that's one potential vision of the future, invoked by Boris Johnson at the UN last year while he speculated about artificial intelligence (AI). We can certainly debate how realistic that vision is, and what the possible timescales might be.
Friday 28th February 2020
Open-access content
2

Expert advice

This edition of the magazine focuses on data science and its applications, which will be a recurring theme for the IFoA.
Friday 28th February 2020
Open-access content

Latest from 09

2

Thought leaders in the wider world

As a profession we are standing on the shoulders of giants, says Colin Wilson and we must drive thought leadership forward together
Wednesday 31st August 2016
Open-access content
2

Disruptive times

Actuaries are used to looking ahead, says Richard Purcell, and it’s more relevant than ever as technology increases its reach in our lives
Wednesday 31st August 2016
Open-access content
Share
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Linked in
  • Mail
  • Print

Latest Jobs

Exposure Management Analyst

London, England
£40000 - £50000 per annum
Reference
148639

Pricing - Casualty Actuary

London (Central)
£128K + bonus + benefits
Reference
148638

Reporting Contractor

Negotiable
Reference
148636
See all jobs »
 
 
 
 

Sign up to our newsletter

News, jobs and updates

Sign up

Subscribe to The Actuary

Receive the print edition straight to your door

Subscribe
Spread-iPad-slantB-june.png

Topics

  • Data Science
  • Investment
  • Risk & ERM
  • Pensions
  • Environment
  • Soft skills
  • General Insurance
  • Regulation Standards
  • Health care
  • Technology
  • Reinsurance
  • Global
  • Life insurance
​
FOLLOW US
The Actuary on LinkedIn
@TheActuaryMag on Twitter
Facebook: The Actuary Magazine
CONTACT US
The Actuary
Tel: (+44) 020 7880 6200
​

IFoA

About IFoA
Become an actuary
IFoA Events
About membership

Information

Privacy Policy
Terms & Conditions
Cookie Policy
Think Green

Get in touch

Contact us
Advertise with us
Subscribe to The Actuary Magazine
Contribute

The Actuary Jobs

Actuarial job search
Pensions jobs
General insurance jobs
Solvency II jobs

© 2023 The Actuary. The Actuary is published on behalf of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries by Redactive Publishing Limited. All rights reserved. Reproduction of any part is not allowed without written permission.

Redactive Media Group Ltd, 71-75 Shelton Street, London WC2H 9JQ