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12

Modelling bias

Open-access content Thursday 4th December 2014
2

Top 10 Forecasting Fallacies (The Actuary, November) was an excellent article. I have seen most of these things happening - in particular, modelling based on past experience without asking if that is relevant. 

It would be a great article to re-read when involved in some modelling. I also feel, from my experience of when I did the exams, that there was too little focus on these types of assumptions. 

I hope that the exam syllabus has progressed and includes these and similar issues. 

Robert Kerr 

11 November

This article appeared in our December 2014 issue of The Actuary.
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