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Thursday 4th December 2014
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updated 4.50pm, Tuesday 14th April 2020
Top 10 Forecasting Fallacies (The Actuary, November) was an excellent article. I have seen most of these things happening - in particular, modelling based on past experience without asking if that is relevant.
It would be a great article to re-read when involved in some modelling. I also feel, from my experience of when I did the exams, that there was too little focus on these types of assumptions.
I hope that the exam syllabus has progressed and includes these and similar issues.
Robert Kerr
11 November
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