Skip to main content
The Actuary: The magazine of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries - return to the homepage Logo of The Actuary website
  • Search
  • Visit The Actuary Magazine on Facebook
  • Visit The Actuary Magazine on LinkedIn
  • Visit @TheActuaryMag on Twitter
Visit the website of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Logo of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

Main navigation

  • News
  • Features
    • General Features
    • Interviews
    • Students
    • Opinion
  • Topics
  • Knowledge
    • Business Skills
    • Careers
    • Events
    • Predictions by The Actuary
    • Whitepapers
    • Moody's - Climate Risk Insurers series
    • Webinars
    • Podcasts
  • Jobs
  • IFoA
    • CEO Comment
    • IFoA News
    • People & Social News
    • President Comment
  • Archive
Quick links:
  • Home
  • Sections
  • News

Fossil fuel demand to peak by 2025 if national climate plans are realised

Open-access content Wednesday 13th October 2021 — updated 1.19pm, Friday 15th October 2021
Fossil fuel demand to peak by 2025 if national climate plans are realised

Global demand for fossil fuels will peak by 2025 if all net-zero pledges announced by governments so far are implemented in time and in full, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast.

In its annual World Energy Outlook report, the IEA also said that CO2 emissions would fall by 40% by 2050 if all national targets were met, holding the average global temperature rise at 2.1 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

In another scenario, based on the energy and climate measures governments have actually put in place to date, as well as specific policy initiatives that are under development, almost all of the net growth in energy demand through 2050 is met by low-emissions sources.

However, that still leaves annual emissions at around today’s levels, causing global average temperatures to hit 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.

Both scenarios fail to achieve global net-zero emissions by 2050, or the 1.5°C target in the Paris Agreement, which the IEA said would require a huge increase in investment in green infrastructure.

“Today’s climate pledges would result in only 20% of the emissions reductions by 2030 that are necessary to put the world on a path towards net zero by 2050,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA. “Reaching that path requires investment in clean energy projects and infrastructure to more than triple over the next decade.”

This comes after a separate report from the IEA in May revealed that no fossil fuel exploration or new oil and natural gas fields are required beyond those that have already been approved in a net-zero emissions by 2050 scenario.

For the first time, the latest World Energy Outlook shows oil demand going into eventual decline in all the scenarios examined, although the timing and speed of the drop vary widely. 

If all today’s announced climate pledges are met, the world would still be consuming 75 million oil barrels per day by 2050 – down from around 100 million today – but that plummets to 25 million in the net-zero emissions by 2050 scenario.

Peter Bosshard, coordinator of the Insure Our Future coalition of NGOs, said that insurance companies “need to follow the science” and make a binding commitment to stop insuring all new oil and gas projects

He added: “We will measure their climate credibility, not by lofty long-term commitments, but by the short-term action they take in line with the IEA’s findings.”

 

Image credit: iStock

Author: Chris Seekings

Filed in
News
Topics
Investment
Environment

You might also like...

Share
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Linked in
  • Mail
  • Print

Latest Jobs

New Fast-Growing Team - Actuarial Systems Development

London (Greater)
Excellent Salary Package
Reference
143762

Actuarial Pension Consultant – Scotland/Remote – Up to £90,000 plus bonus

Edinburgh / Glasgow / Remote working
Up to £90,000 + Bonus
Reference
143761

Part Qualified Pensions Actuary– Specialised Pensions Consultancy - Scotland/Remote - Up to £70,000

Edinburgh / Glasgow / Remote working
Up to £70,000 + Bonus
Reference
143760
See all jobs »
 
 

Today's top reads

 
 

Sign up to our newsletter

News, jobs and updates

Sign up

Subscribe to The Actuary

Receive the print edition straight to your door

Subscribe
Spread-iPad-slantB-june.png

Topics

  • Data Science
  • Investment
  • Risk & ERM
  • Pensions
  • Environment
  • Soft skills
  • General Insurance
  • Regulation Standards
  • Health care
  • Technology
  • Reinsurance
  • Global
  • Life insurance
​
FOLLOW US
The Actuary on LinkedIn
@TheActuaryMag on Twitter
Facebook: The Actuary Magazine
CONTACT US
The Actuary
Tel: (+44) 020 7880 6200
​

IFoA

About IFoA
Become an actuary
IFoA Events
About membership

Information

Privacy Policy
Terms & Conditions
Cookie Policy
Think Green

Get in touch

Contact us
Advertise with us
Subscribe to The Actuary Magazine
Contribute

The Actuary Jobs

Actuarial job search
Pensions jobs
General insurance jobs
Solvency II jobs

© 2023 The Actuary. The Actuary is published on behalf of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries by Redactive Publishing Limited. All rights reserved. Reproduction of any part is not allowed without written permission.

Redactive Media Group Ltd, 71-75 Shelton Street, London WC2H 9JQ