Skip to main content
The Actuary: The magazine of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries - return to the homepage Logo of The Actuary website
  • Search
  • Visit The Actuary Magazine on Facebook
  • Visit The Actuary Magazine on LinkedIn
  • Visit @TheActuaryMag on Twitter
Visit the website of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Logo of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

Main navigation

  • News
  • Features
    • General Features
    • Interviews
    • Students
    • Opinion
  • Topics
  • Knowledge
    • Business Skills
    • Careers
    • Events
    • Predictions by The Actuary
    • Whitepapers
    • Moody's - Climate Risk Insurers series
    • Webinars
    • Podcasts
  • Jobs
  • IFoA
    • CEO Comment
    • IFoA News
    • People & Social News
    • President Comment
  • Archive
Quick links:
  • Home
  • Sections
  • News

Coronavirus 'green zones' proposed

Open-access content Friday 24th April 2020 — updated 10.46am, Friday 1st May 2020
Authors
CHRIS SEEKINGS

Dividing countries into 'green zones' with low levels of coronavirus risk, and gradually joining them together, could see social and economic interaction returned to normal within two months, a new study suggests.

web_virus_iStock-1209736935.png

The proposals first involve identifying areas where the growth rate of COVID-19 infections is low, the sanitary system is operational, and the future risks appear manageable.

Inhabitants of these green zones would be able to return to their usual social and economic interactions within their area, although travel out of town would be restricted.

A network of green zones would then gradually expand, within which restrictions on movement could be lifted, while 'red zones' with high levels of coronavirus risk would remain in lockdown.

A country such as the UK could be reunified within two to four months, according to the study, which was carried out by a group of mathematicians and economists.

Writing for the World Economic Forum, Bary Pradelski from the University of Oxford, and Miquel Oliu-Barton from the PSL Research University in Paris, said that the proposals could see normality restored in a “safe, efficient, and rapid way”.

“This reunification process might seem tedious, as the size of the green zones, while often increasing, might also decrease from time to time,” they wrote.

“But our study suggests that when the probability of new infections is controlled, this process would still enable an exponentially fast return to normality.”

Such zoning measures have been successfully implemented in several areas in China, notably Wuhan, and the latest proposals build on an approach put forward by Spanish economist Joan Monràs.

The exact definition of what would constitute a green zone, and when to join them together, would depend on specific countries, and consultations with medical, epidemiological and economic experts.

In some cases, it may be preferable to refer to them as 'amber' in order to highlight the fact that many restrictions remain in place.

Zones of 5,000 to 100,000 inhabitants are proposed, and a special certificate would be required to leave a particular zone, which would be reserved for key workers and other important reasons.

Divisions between some zones may therefore need to be legally enforced, which would represent a step up in state-enforced control in many countries.

“The definition of zones needs careful consideration of social and economic ties,” Pradelski and Oliu-Barton wrote. “The rules applying for each zone would need to be clearly defined.

“Importantly, all measures, including green zoning, would need the support of the public – which may not be easy to secure, given the significant increase in policing measures involved.”

Image credit | iStock

You may also be interested in...

iStock-959261528.jpg

Content General Scheduling Categories Metadata Reinsurers facing $30bn capital squeeze

Global reinsurance capital could be slashed by around $30bn (£24bn) as companies look to de-risk their balance sheets by holding cash during the coronavirus crisis.
Friday 24th April 2020
Open-access content
Web_Contract_shutterstock_559511326.jpg

Stability of insurance industry threatened by forced payouts

Forcing insurance companies to cover financial losses brought on by COVID-19 when their policies did not include coverage for pandemics would threaten the stability of the entire global insurance industry, insurers have warned.
Wednesday 22nd April 2020
Open-access content
Insurance-iStock-186839306.jpg

Insurers expect £1.2bn in COVID-19 payouts

UK insurance companies expect to pay over £1.2bn in support for businesses and individuals affected by the COVID-19 crisis, the Association of British Insurers (ABI) has revealed.
Monday 27th April 2020
Open-access content
©iStock.jpeg

Deaths in England and Wales hit 20-year high

This month saw the highest weekly total of deaths recorded in England and Wales since the first seven days of 2000, figures released today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveal.
Tuesday 21st April 2020
Open-access content
web_ceos_istock.jpg

COVID-19: Investors set out expectations for investee companies

More than 250 institutional investors managing over $8.2trn (£6.7trn) in assets have called on their investee companies to minimise the financial and societal disruption brought on by COVID-19.
Tuesday 21st April 2020
Open-access content
Web_CarCrash_shutterstock_144040552.jpg

Uncertainty driving fluctuating car insurance prices

Car insurance premiums have fluctuated for a fifth consecutive quarter in the UK amid continued market uncertainty, and are likely to remain volatile during the coronavirus crisis.
Monday 20th April 2020
Open-access content

Latest from News

tf

New online forum 'IFoA communities' – now live

IFoA communities is your new online digital community. Here’s how to get started on the platform
Thursday 2nd March 2023
Open-access content
uh

Climate risk course sees new growth

In April, the Climate Risk and Sustainability course will be one year old. During its first year, we welcomed 155 participants and awarded 148 certificates. Members from more than 19 countries came together at the seminars to discuss and share what they had learnt.
Wednesday 1st March 2023
Open-access content
uh

Actuarial Profession Standard Z1: have your say

The IFoA is consulting on proposals to introduce a revised Actuarial Profession Standard (APS) Z1 on ‘Duties and responsibilities of members undertaking work in relation to UK trust-based pre-paid funeral plans’. APS Z1 sets out specific ethical and professional obligations that apply, in addition to the Actuaries’ Code, for members providing advice relating to funeral plan trusts.
Wednesday 1st March 2023
Open-access content

Latest from CHRIS SEEKINGS

web_1_Covid-patient-in-hospital-bed-in-quarantine_credit_Halfpoint_shutterstock_1668007552.png

England and Wales record worst rise in deaths rates since WWII

The last two years have seen death rates in England and Wales rise above the preceding five-year average for the first time since WWII, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has found.
Wednesday 12th January 2022
Open-access content
Jørgen Randers: An end to growth?

Jørgen Randers: An end to growth?

Professor Jørgen Randers talks to Chris Seekings almost 50 years after the publication of his report The Limits to Growth, and outlines what we can expect for the world during the next half-century
Wednesday 1st December 2021
Open-access content
web-p12-14-Dominic-Christian-Interview--globe-jb-227-background.jpg

Dominic Christian: All for one

Dominic Christian talks to Chris Seekings and Roulion Wang about how the insurance industry must come together to develop innovative solutions to the climate crisis
Wednesday 6th October 2021
Open-access content
Share
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Linked in
  • Mail
  • Print

Latest Jobs

Investment Consultant

Scotland / Scotland, Edinburgh / London, England
Up to £70000.00 per annum
Reference
148689

Market Risk Capital Actuary/Quant

London (Central)
£65,000 - £115,000 plus bonus and package
Reference
148688

Experience Analysis Contractor

England
Negotiable
Reference
148687
See all jobs »
 
 
 
 

Sign up to our newsletter

News, jobs and updates

Sign up

Subscribe to The Actuary

Receive the print edition straight to your door

Subscribe
Spread-iPad-slantB-june.png

Topics

  • Data Science
  • Investment
  • Risk & ERM
  • Pensions
  • Environment
  • Soft skills
  • General Insurance
  • Regulation Standards
  • Health care
  • Technology
  • Reinsurance
  • Global
  • Life insurance
​
FOLLOW US
The Actuary on LinkedIn
@TheActuaryMag on Twitter
Facebook: The Actuary Magazine
CONTACT US
The Actuary
Tel: (+44) 020 7880 6200
​

IFoA

About IFoA
Become an actuary
IFoA Events
About membership

Information

Privacy Policy
Terms & Conditions
Cookie Policy
Think Green

Get in touch

Contact us
Advertise with us
Subscribe to The Actuary Magazine
Contribute

The Actuary Jobs

Actuarial job search
Pensions jobs
General insurance jobs
Solvency II jobs

© 2023 The Actuary. The Actuary is published on behalf of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries by Redactive Publishing Limited. All rights reserved. Reproduction of any part is not allowed without written permission.

Redactive Media Group Ltd, 71-75 Shelton Street, London WC2H 9JQ