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The Actuary The magazine of the Institute & Faculty of Actuaries

CMA releases updated mortality projections model

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has released the latest version of its Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2018 



When compared with the previous CMI_2017 Model, cohort life expectancies at age 65 are around five months lower for both males and females, at 19.8 years and 22.4 years, respectively.

Tim Gordon, chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “It’s now widely accepted that mortality improvements in the general population since 2011 have been much lower than in the earlier part of this century. Average mortality improvements between 2000 and 2011 were typically over 2% per year but have since fallen to around 0.5% per year. The causes of the slowdown, and whether these current low improvements will persist, remain a subject of considerable debate. The CMI_2018 Model itself reflects increasing evidence that the lower level of improvements may be due to medium or long-term influences, rather than just short-term volatility.”