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The Actuary The magazine of the Institute & Faculty of Actuaries

Actuaries launch a board game

In the summer of 2016, while deep in the Amazon jungle, two intrepid actuaries, Welshman Ceri Price and Londoner Natalie Podd, drifted under the rainforest canopy in their canoe.


As they paddled, Ceri asked Natalie if she knew the population of Brazil. Without the internet, her actuarial instincts kicked in – she made some assumptions and responded with her 95% confidence interval. This sparked a flurry of intriguing trivia questions, always answered with a range. While exploring the jungle during the subsequent days, they developed this concept into an idea for a board game: CONFIDENT?

After returning to the UK, Ceri and Natalie tested the game with friends, family and game designers, and finalised the scoring system – players need to get the correct answer in their range while also getting the smallest range compared to their opponents. Although it wasn’t formally accepted as CPD by the IFoA, players loved it as it was easy to learn, they got to play every question and they always had a chance, thanks to the game’s unique ingredient of answering with a range. Ceri and Natalie knew they were onto something special when Ceri’s competitive sister played a whole game without flipping the table – and his dad stayed awake.

Manufacturing began in June 2018. Since then, the duo has juggled full-time jobs with designing components and branding, coming up with questions, negotiating with manufacturers, building a website and organising logistics. Finally, it’s available to buy on Amazon! How confident are you on the number of Friends episodes that were made, or how many stations are on the Northern Line? There’s only one way to find out – go to www.ConfidentGame.com.

Email social@ConfidentGame.com with any questions or comments.