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07

Global warming set to exceed Paris Agreement limit by 2°C

Open-access content Tuesday 17th July 2018 — updated 5.50pm, Wednesday 29th April 2020

The world is on course to experience a temperature rise that is approximately double the upper limit of 2°C set out in the Paris Agreement, new research has found.

2


Investment manager Schroders' Climate Progress Dashboard predicts a temperature increase of 4°C above pre-industrial levels under a business-as-usual scenario.

This is based on 12 key indicators spanning politics, business, technological progress and energy, with the firm finding no progress in slowing oil and gas investment.

Fossil fuel reserves also continue to increase unabated, however, there were positive results recorded for renewable energy capacity, carbon prices, and electric vehicle usage.

Schroders' head of sustainable research, Andrew Howard, said there are "reasons for optimism", but that global action to limit climate change has been too slow.

"We believe the outlook is a little more positive than the headline temperature rise suggests," he continued. "But it is clear that far faster action is needed, and far more disruption lies ahead."

The dashboard is designed to give investors an insight into how successfully governments and industries are delivering the Paris Agreement and is updated on a quarterly basis.

It previously predicted a temperature rise of 4.1°C when launched 12 months ago, but adjusted this down after reforms to the EU's Emissions Trading Scheme were announced last year.

Schroders also said China's plan for a nationwide carbon-trading scheme was another source of optimism, establishing a price for close to one-quarter of the world's emissions.

This comes after research found that there are three times as many European pension funds considering how climate change could impact investments than there were last year.

"Indicators are moving in the right direction," Howard said. 

"The growing use of electric vehicles and clean energy technologies underline the falling reliance on politicians to drive climate action, which should ultimately be a major positive."


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This article appeared in our July 2018 issue of The Actuary .
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