The NHS will need an additional £50bn each year by 2030 if funding is to return to its long-term trend, with patients facing longer waiting times and a re-emergence of rationing.
That is the warning from an independent review which forecasts that a "baby boomer bump" will exacerbate cost pressures in the decade ahead as the post-war generation demand more health and care services.
It also predicts that adult social care will require a minimum of £10bn extra funding per year by 2030 just to maintain the existing system.
Review chair, Lord Ara Darzi, said: "It is getting harder and harder to access care and the system is in financial distress. Funding the NHS, while social care falls over is not an option.
"While the prospect of a long-term funding settlement is welcome, it is vital that it delivers enough money to meet the demands of the decade ahead."
The review found that there has been a 5% fall in the number of people receiving publicly funded social care each year since 2010, despite a significant increase in the number of elderly people that need it.
It also reveals that there has been a five-fold increase in people waiting for more than four hours at A&E, and an eight-fold rise in the number of trolley waits over four hours.
This has followed what the review describes as the "most austere decade" in the health service's history, with funding for social care declining in real terms almost every year since 2010.
Even if the two proposed funding requirements are met, it is estimated that the NHS will still have to boost productivity by 150%, requiring fundamental reform of the system.
Despite these challenges, the review found that the quality of care has been maintained or improved since 2008.
The one-year survival rate for all cancers has risen from 67% to 72%, while maternal and infant mortality rates have improved, down 5% and 2% per year respectively.
"Health and social care is facing a perfect storm, with the needs of a growing and ageing population rising faster than the available resource," review vice-chair, Lord Prior, said.
"The government should commit to a long-term, more generous funding settlement, invest heavily in integrated care and prevention, and support urgently the new digital technologies described in the Life Sciences Industrial strategy."