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06

Global CO2 emissions to peak in 2026

Open-access content 19th June 2017

CO2 emissions from power generation will peak in 2026, and be 4% lower in 2040 than they were last year, according to a new report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).

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Much of this will be due to "unstoppable" renewable energy sources undercutting the majority of existing fossil fuel power stations, with the cost of solar dropping 66% by 2040, and onshore wind by 47%.

During that time, almost three quarters of the projected $10.2trn (£8trn) investment in new power generating technology is expected to go towards renewables.

"The greening of the world's electricity system is unstoppable thanks to rapidly falling costs for solar and wind power, and a growing role for batteries, including those in electric vehicles, in balancing supply and demand," report lead author, Seb Henbest, said.

How the global electricity generation mix is forecast to look in 2040 is shown below:

How the global electricity generation mix is forecast to look in 2040

Analysis by BNEF reveals that wind and solar energy will make up 48% of the world's installed capacity, and account for 34% of electricity generation by 2040 - compared with 12% and 5% today.

Its report highlights how China and India could be a $4trn opportunity for the energy sector, and account for 28% and 11% of all investment in power generation by the end of the next decade.

In addition, it shows that solar energy is already at least as cheap as coal in Germany, Australia, Spain and the US, but will also be less expensive in China, India, Mexico, Brazil and the UK by 2021.

This comes after a report released by BP last week showed that global coal consumption fell for a second successive year in 2016, bringing its share of primary energy production to 28.1% - the lowest recorded since 2004.

"The speed of deterioration in the fortunes of coal over the past few years has been stark. It's only four years ago that coal was the largest source of global demand growth," BP group chief economist, Spencer Dale, said.

"The contrasting fortunes of renewables and coal had much to do with the longer-run energy transition that is underway.

"The evolution of the power sector is likely to remain a key bellwether for the pace and nature of the energy transition in coming years - so watch this space."


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This article appeared in our June 2017 issue of The Actuary.
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