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05

UK GDP growth revised up for next three years

Open-access content 5th June 2017

The World Bank projects that UK GDP will grow by 1.7% in 2017, up from its 1.2% forecast in January earlier this year, despite a disappointing first quarter.

2

In addition, the institution expects Britain's economy to expand by 1.5% over the following two years, compared with earlier estimates of 1.3%.

This comes after analysis by the Office for National Statistics showed that GDP grew by just 0.2% in the first three months of this year, less than a third of the 0.7% growth recorded in the last quarter of 2016.

However, the World Bank said in a report published yesterday that: "Prospects remain clouded by elevated policy uncertainties, including election outcomes and the direction of Brexit."

"Negotiations around the exit of the UK from the EU carry risks, and if the uncertainty persists, could weigh on investor confidence and derail the ongoing recovery in growth."

The positive outlook comes against a strong global backdrop, with economic growth worldwide forecast to strengthen to 2.7% in 2017 due to a pickup in manufacturing and trade, rising market confidence, and stabilising commodity prices.

Growth in advanced economies is projected to accelerate to 1.9% this year, while emerging markets and developing economies are expected to expand by 4.1%, compared with 3.5% last year.

"After a prolonged slowdown, recent acceleration in activity in some of the largest emerging markets is a welcome development for growth in their regions and for the global economy," World Bank development economics prospects director, Ayhan Kose, said.

"Now is the time for emerging market and developing economies to assess their vulnerabilities and strengthen policy buffers against adverse shocks."

It was also found that trade growth has bounced back to 4% after a post-financial crisis low of 2.5% was recorded last year, but that substantial risks cloud the outlook.

The World Bank report says that new trade restrictions could derail the rebound in global trade, and that persistent policy uncertainty could dampen confidence and investment.

"With a fragile but real recovery now underway, countries should seize this moment to undertake institutional and market reforms that can attract private investment to help sustain growth in the long-term," World Bank president, Jim Yong Kim, said.

"Countries must also continue to invest in people and build resilience against overlapping challenges, including climate change, conflict, forced displacement, famine, and disease."


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This article appeared in our May 2017 issue of The Actuary.
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