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05

Political parties failing to tackle 'bigger than Brexit' fall in productivity

Open-access content Thursday 1st June 2017 — updated 5.50pm, Wednesday 29th April 2020

None of the political parties in the UK are offering the right mix of policy solutions to address the country’s slowdown in productivity growth, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).

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In a briefing published today, the think-tank says there is a 15-20% gap in productivity since the start of the financial crisis, and that living standards could rise materially slower than in other countries over the next 30 years as a result.

It states that a combination of factors such as a lack of investment has led to a low-wage, low-productivity, high- employment outcome, which no politician is sufficiently tackling.

"Above and beyond the question of exit from the EU, the biggest economic problem facing the UK is of the astonishing slowdown in productivity," NIESR director, Jagjit Chadha, said.

"The causes are many and will require concerted co-ordination by an incoming government to solve. Unfortunately, none of the political parties have addressed the solutions in a wholly convincing manner."

The UK's total factor productivity growth between 1948 and 2015 is shown below:

productivity growth between 1948 and 2015

Today's briefing states that the type of investment the government sets out to implement will determine whether it has an impact on productivity, arguing that it must be in projects that firms would choose to do themselves. 

It also says that banks may be providing limited access to finance for firms, and creating real or anticipated constraints on credit availability, while public policy is not providing enough incentives for creating growth.

In addition, it outlines how increased public investment, as well as more R&D, could help bring productivity levels up, but that the government will have difficult choices due to the costs of healthcare with an ageing population.

"Policies and institutions play the most fundamental role in providing a gateway to modern forms of economic growth and can alter the set of returns from investment and technological projects," the briefing says.

"Policy also plays a role in organising firms and banks, which can combine to ensure that creative destruction enables new, more efficient firms replace tired, older firms.

"These policies must be flexible because one repeated sin is the failure to reform and ultimately block the adoption of new methods of production."

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This article appeared in our May 2017 issue of The Actuary.
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