Skip to main content
The Actuary: The magazine of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries - return to the homepage Logo of The Actuary website
  • Search
  • Visit The Actuary Magazine on Facebook
  • Visit The Actuary Magazine on LinkedIn
  • Visit @TheActuaryMag on Twitter
Visit the website of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Logo of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

Main navigation

  • News
  • Features
    • General Features
    • Interviews
    • Students
    • Opinion
  • Topics
  • Knowledge
    • Business Skills
    • Careers
    • Events
    • Predictions by The Actuary
    • Whitepapers
    • Moody's - Climate Risk Insurers series
    • Webinars
    • Podcasts
  • Jobs
  • IFoA
    • CEO Comment
    • IFoA News
    • People & Social News
    • President Comment
  • Archive
Quick links:
  • Home
  • The Actuary Issues
  • February 2016
02

Actuaries predict Ireland to win rugby's Six Nations Championship

Open-access content Wednesday 3rd February 2016 — updated 5.50pm, Wednesday 29th April 2020

Ireland is most likely to win the 2016 RBS Six Nations Championship, actuaries have said.

2


The tournament is an annual rugby union competition involving six countries: England, France, Ireland, Italy, Scotland and Wales.  

Actuaries at QBE Insurance said Ireland had a 35% of chance of winning, following two previous consecutive victories. 

Based on a wide range of variables and 10 years of past events and incidents, England is second favourite, with a 30% chance.

The variables used to forecast the tournament include the number of tries, kicks and conversions scored by team, the caps of each captain, form of the team and home/away advantages.

The model, which simulated the tournament 10,000 times to produce outcomes from 150,000 games, also indicates Ireland to have an 11% probability of winning a Grand Slam, which occurs when one of the teams manage to beat all others.

Ireland is also predicted to have a 20% chance of winning the Triple Crown, where one of the 'home nations' (England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales) defeats all three other teams. 

The firm said England was more likely to take home the Calcutta Cup, with a 70% probability of victory. This is awarded to the winner of the Six Nations Championship match between England and Scotland.

Matthew Crane, director of UK and Ireland at QBE Insurance, said: "Predictive analytics is either a dark art or a science, depending on whom you talk to. Rugby teams are not that different from businesses as they have to understand the risks and prepare for every eventuality."

The 2016 RBS Six Nations Championship starts this Saturday 6 February with France against Italy at Stade de France. Scotland will play against England later that day at BT Murrayfield.


Probability of victory:

Ireland - 35%

England - 30%

France - 17%

Wales - 14%

Scotland - 4%

Italy - 0%

This article appeared in our February 2016 issue of The Actuary.
Click here to view this issue
Filed in
02
Topics
Global

You might also like...

Share
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Linked in
  • Mail
  • Print

Latest Jobs

Life Actuarial Trainee

England
Up to £55000.00 per annum
Reference
145815

Catastrophe Manager - Top Performing Syndicate

England, London
£70000 - £94000 per annum
Reference
145814

Senior Pricing Analyst

London, England
£40000 - £80000 per annum
Reference
145813
See all jobs »
 
 

Today's top reads

 
 

Sign up to our newsletter

News, jobs and updates

Sign up

Subscribe to The Actuary

Receive the print edition straight to your door

Subscribe
Spread-iPad-slantB-june.png

Topics

  • Data Science
  • Investment
  • Risk & ERM
  • Pensions
  • Environment
  • Soft skills
  • General Insurance
  • Regulation Standards
  • Health care
  • Technology
  • Reinsurance
  • Global
  • Life insurance
​
FOLLOW US
The Actuary on LinkedIn
@TheActuaryMag on Twitter
Facebook: The Actuary Magazine
CONTACT US
The Actuary
Tel: (+44) 020 7880 6200
​

IFoA

About IFoA
Become an actuary
IFoA Events
About membership

Information

Privacy Policy
Terms & Conditions
Cookie Policy
Think Green

Get in touch

Contact us
Advertise with us
Subscribe to The Actuary Magazine
Contribute

The Actuary Jobs

Actuarial job search
Pensions jobs
General insurance jobs
Solvency II jobs

© 2023 The Actuary. The Actuary is published on behalf of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries by Redactive Publishing Limited. All rights reserved. Reproduction of any part is not allowed without written permission.

Redactive Media Group Ltd, 71-75 Shelton Street, London WC2H 9JQ