Skip to main content
The Actuary: The magazine of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries - return to the homepage Logo of The Actuary website
  • Search
  • Visit The Actuary Magazine on Facebook
  • Visit The Actuary Magazine on LinkedIn
  • Visit @TheActuaryMag on Twitter
Visit the website of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Logo of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

Main navigation

  • News
  • Features
    • General Features
    • Interviews
    • Students
    • Opinion
  • Topics
  • Knowledge
    • Business Skills
    • Careers
    • Events
    • Predictions by The Actuary
    • Whitepapers
    • Moody's - Climate Risk Insurers series
    • Webinars
    • Podcasts
  • Jobs
  • IFoA
    • CEO Comment
    • IFoA News
    • People & Social News
    • President Comment
  • Archive
Quick links:
  • Home
  • The Actuary Issues
  • August 2015
08

'Big data' modelling can help actuaries monitor disease outbreaks

Open-access content Thursday 6th August 2015 — updated 4.04pm, Thursday 30th April 2020

Actuaries can use dynamic modelling instead of a statistical method to track and address future pandemics more effectively, the IFoA has said.

According to its Longevity Bulletin, which examines life expectancy trends, a traditional actuarial approach would be to undertake statistical analysis of past mortality experience.

Gordon Woo, chief architect of the first pandemic risk model for the life insurance industry at Risk Management Solutions, said in the report it was possible to extrapolate from historical data. But the "paucity of historical events" and the evolution over time of the human population and its interaction with the infectious disease environment, made it difficult to provide an accurate picture. 

To understand the scope of pandemic risk, he said the spectrum of possible future scenarios would need to be constructed based on current human population and an up-to-date scientific understanding of the disease environment. 

Woo said: "This structured approach to dynamic modelling is more insightful for risk management than a purely statistical method, because of the sparse statistics of pandemics. Such a structured approach is highly computer-intensive and underpins the development of software for catastrophe insurance risk modelling over the past quarter century."

The report highlighted the importance of factors such as understanding the routes of transmission, prevention and treatment, and factors that would increase or decrease the risk of pandemics such as international travel and vaccination.

For example, it said modelling of historic air-passenger volumes and flight patterns could point to destinations where a traveller with Ebola might be. The IFoA said this could help authorities make sure a vaccine can be in the right place at the right time to tackle any emerging outbreak.

Also in the study Christoph Thuemmler, professor at Edinburgh Napier University, said the wide availability of social media, as well as the smartphone and other mobile devices, were playing an increasing role in all areas of health. 

For instance, personalisation and virtualisation of health care could be analysed through m-health technology - the practice of healthcare with the use of mobile devices. Thuemmler also said health officials were able to detect flu trends using Twitter.

He said: "In several studies it could be demonstrated that it was possible to track flu pandemics by monitoring the social web using completely independent data to that commonly used for flu detection.

"Cross matching the results of big data analysis of the social web and medical data could be of tremendous value in rapidly responding to future outbreaks of infectious diseases."

This article appeared in our August 2015 issue of The Actuary .
Click here to view this issue

You may also be interested in...

2

Insurers paid out £3.44bn on protection cover in 2014

The total amount paid to 128,500 customers with protection insurance in the UK in 2014 was £3.44bn, according to the Association of British Insurers (ABI).
Monday 17th August 2015
Open-access content
2

Guidance to correct mistakes in police and fire pensions published

The UK Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) has published detailed guidance for police and fire pension scheme administrators to calculate redress for errors.
Tuesday 4th August 2015
Open-access content
2

Pensions should operate like ISAs, say savers

Savers would prefer pensions to be taxed when they put money into them rather than when they withdraw it, according to a PwC survey.
Monday 10th August 2015
Open-access content
2

Home insurance premiums down 6.6% in the past year

The cheapest home insurance premiums fell by 6.6% between June 2014 and 2015.
Tuesday 11th August 2015
Open-access content
2

PRA sets instructions on reporting and public disclosure under Solvency II

The Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) has published its expectations on supervisory reporting and public disclosure for firms within the scope of the Solvency II directive.
Tuesday 11th August 2015
Open-access content
2

Just Retirement and Partnership in £1.7bn tie-up

Annuity providers Just Retirement and Partnership Assurance Group have agreed to merge, creating a firm worth £1.7bn.
Wednesday 12th August 2015
Open-access content

Latest from Health care

yf

Animal crossing: the threat of zoonotic diseases

Prachi Patkee and Adam Strange discuss what the rising threat of climate-driven communicable disease means for insurers
Wednesday 30th November 2022
Open-access content
hb

Boiling point: the effect of rising temperatures on future mortality

As quantifying climate risk exposure becomes increasingly important, Dan Gill, Rajinder Poonian and Alex Harding investigate the effect of rising temperatures on future mortality
Wednesday 2nd November 2022
Open-access content
vb

Interview: Professor Paul Dalziel on changing the focus of economies from growth to wellbeing

Paul Dalziel talks to Alex Martin about the true purpose of economics and the lessons we can draw from the 2019 New Zealand wellbeing budget
Wednesday 2nd November 2022
Open-access content

Latest from August 2015

2

More motorists running out of fuel after 'getting into bad habits'

The number of motorists breaking down as a result of running out of fuel increased to 827,000 in 2014, up 50,000 on 2013, an insurer has found.
Thursday 27th August 2015
Open-access content
2

'Solvency II could push up pension buyout cost by 10%'

The new regulatory regime, Solvency II, could add up to 10% to pension buyout deals, according to PwC.
Thursday 27th August 2015
Open-access content
2

More than 27,000 uninsured cars seized this year including Ferraris and Lamborghinis

Police forces across the UK have seized at least 27,688 uninsured cars in 2015 to date, including luxury brands such as Ferraris and Lamborghinis, according to research by Churchill.
Thursday 27th August 2015
Open-access content

Latest from small_opening_image

2

COVID-19 forum for actuaries launched

A forum for actuaries has been launched to help the profession come together and learn how best to respond to the deadly coronavirus sweeping the world.
Wednesday 25th March 2020
Open-access content
2

Travel insurers expect record payouts this year

UK travel insurers expect to pay a record £275m to customers this year as coronavirus grounds flights across the world, the Association of British Insurers (ABI) has revealed.
Wednesday 25th March 2020
Open-access content
2

Grim economic forecasts made as countries lockdown

A sharp recession is imminent in the vast majority of developed and emerging economies as the deadly coronavirus forces businesses to shut down across the world.
Tuesday 24th March 2020
Open-access content

Latest from inline_local_link

2

COVID-19 forum for actuaries launched

A forum for actuaries has been launched to help the profession come together and learn how best to respond to the deadly coronavirus sweeping the world.
Wednesday 25th March 2020
Open-access content
2

Travel insurers expect record payouts this year

UK travel insurers expect to pay a record £275m to customers this year as coronavirus grounds flights across the world, the Association of British Insurers (ABI) has revealed.
Wednesday 25th March 2020
Open-access content
2

Grim economic forecasts made as countries lockdown

A sharp recession is imminent in the vast majority of developed and emerging economies as the deadly coronavirus forces businesses to shut down across the world.
Tuesday 24th March 2020
Open-access content

Latest from 08

2

More motorists running out of fuel after 'getting into bad habits'

The number of motorists breaking down as a result of running out of fuel increased to 827,000 in 2014, up 50,000 on 2013, an insurer has found.
Thursday 27th August 2015
Open-access content
2

'Solvency II could push up pension buyout cost by 10%'

The new regulatory regime, Solvency II, could add up to 10% to pension buyout deals, according to PwC.
Thursday 27th August 2015
Open-access content
2

More than 27,000 uninsured cars seized this year including Ferraris and Lamborghinis

Police forces across the UK have seized at least 27,688 uninsured cars in 2015 to date, including luxury brands such as Ferraris and Lamborghinis, according to research by Churchill.
Thursday 27th August 2015
Open-access content
Share
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Linked in
  • Mail
  • Print

Latest Jobs

Capital & Reserving, Nearly Newly

London (Greater)
Depending on experience
Reference
149031

Reserving Actuary

Dublin
Competitive
Reference
149027

Senior Analyst - Actuarial and Funding Risk

England, London
£60000 - £65000 per annum + bonus + benefits
Reference
149029
See all jobs »
 
 
 
 

Sign up to our newsletter

News, jobs and updates

Sign up

Subscribe to The Actuary

Receive the print edition straight to your door

Subscribe
Spread-iPad-slantB-june.png

Topics

  • Data Science
  • Investment
  • Risk & ERM
  • Pensions
  • Environment
  • Soft skills
  • General Insurance
  • Regulation Standards
  • Health care
  • Technology
  • Reinsurance
  • Global
  • Life insurance
​
FOLLOW US
The Actuary on LinkedIn
@TheActuaryMag on Twitter
Facebook: The Actuary Magazine
CONTACT US
The Actuary
Tel: (+44) 020 7880 6200
​

IFoA

About IFoA
Become an actuary
IFoA Events
About membership

Information

Privacy Policy
Terms & Conditions
Cookie Policy
Think Green

Get in touch

Contact us
Advertise with us
Subscribe to The Actuary Magazine
Contribute

The Actuary Jobs

Actuarial job search
Pensions jobs
General insurance jobs
Solvency II jobs

© 2023 The Actuary. The Actuary is published on behalf of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries by Redactive Publishing Limited. All rights reserved. Reproduction of any part is not allowed without written permission.

Redactive Media Group Ltd, 71-75 Shelton Street, London WC2H 9JQ