Skip to main content
The Actuary: The magazine of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries - return to the homepage Logo of The Actuary website
  • Search
  • Visit The Actuary Magazine on Facebook
  • Visit The Actuary Magazine on LinkedIn
  • Visit @TheActuaryMag on Twitter
Visit the website of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Logo of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

Main navigation

  • News
  • Features
    • General Features
    • Interviews
    • Students
    • Opinion
  • Topics
  • Knowledge
    • Business Skills
    • Careers
    • Events
    • Predictions by The Actuary
    • Whitepapers
  • Jobs
  • IFoA
    • CEO Comment
    • IFoA News
    • People & Social News
    • President Comment
  • Archive

Topics

  • Data Science
  • Investment
  • Risk & ERM
  • Pensions
  • Environment
  • Soft skills
  • General Insurance
  • Regulation Standards
  • Health care
  • Technology
  • Reinsurance
  • Global
  • Life insurance
Quick links:
  • Home
  • The Actuary Issues
  • January 2014
01

2013 deaths highest for five years

Open-access content 30th January 2014

Death rates are up in England and Wales reaching more than half a million during 2013, official figures have revealed today


30 JANUARY 2014 | BY JUDITH UGWUMADU

The number of deaths recorded was 505,675 last year, compared to the 498,281 registered in 2012. 

Actuaries Towers Watson said 2013 was the second successive year in which 'mortality rates' have not improved. This means the number of deaths exceeded what had been anticipated by pension schemes and in official projections.  

Matthew Fletcher, a senior consultant at Towers Watson, said: 'Although more people died in 2013 than in 2012, the number of deaths is consistent with mortality rates staying more or less the same.  It looks as though there may have been a fractional improvement, of less than 0.1%.  [But] this is a long way short of the 2-3% annual improvements that were typical during the 1990s and 2000s.'

Increased death numbers have been attributed to an unusually late cold period and a prolonged influenza episode in the first half of 2013. Public Health England has previously found that influenza was a major factor behind the high number of deaths in the 2012/13 winter, Towers Watson said. As such, the first half of 2013 saw around 11,500 more deaths registered compared to the same period in 2012 but there were around 4,100 fewer deaths between July and December, Towers Watson said. 

In 2012, there was no overall improvement in mortality rates for men, while female mortality rates actually got worse, Towers Watson said. In November, ONS figures assumed that mortality rates for women aged 83 and over, and for men aged 86 and over would worsen in future years. This suggests that pensioners in their 80s have slightly less chance of living into their 90s and beyond, compared to previous years.  

The firm said 2013 was the first year since 2008 when there were more than a half a million deaths registered. English and Welsh death registration offices were notified of: 507,829 deaths in 2008; 490,247 in 2009; 492,214 in 2010; and 483,288 in 2011.  

Fletcher added that mortality rates do not improve in a straight line and data has to be averaged out over a number of years for a clear picture to emerge.

'When pension schemes next revisit their assumptions, an important question to consider will be whether what happened in 2012 and 2013 was just a blip or whether it could mark the end of an era of fast improvements in mortality rates,' he said.

'Many pension schemes and their sponsoring employers would rather know where they stand.  We expect those who place a premium on certainty to continue exploring whether the risk of having to pay out pensions for longer than they are budgeting for can be passed to a third party at an acceptable price.'

But he added that, the further into the future one tries to look, the more uncertain life expectancy becomes.  


This article appeared in our January 2014 issue of The Actuary.
Click here to view this issue
Filed in:
01
Topics:
Pensions
Share
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Linked in
  • Mail
  • Print

Latest Jobs

Make the switch from Pensions > Life Insurance

Manchester
Excellent Salary + Bonus (study support if required)
Reference
118732

Nearly/Newly Qualified Actuary – With Profits Reporting & Valuation

Scotland
£Upon Application
Reference
118763

Director of Investment Risk

London (Central)
+ comprehensive benefits
Reference
118783
See all jobs »
 
 

Most-Popular

 
 
 

Sign up to our newsletter

News, jobs and updates

Sign up

Subscribe to The Actuary

Receive the print edition straight to your door

Subscribe
Spread-iPad-slantB-june.png
​
FOLLOW US
The Actuary on LinkedIn
@TheActuaryMag on Twitter
Facebook: The Actuary Magazine
CONTACT US
The Actuary
Tel: (+44) 020 7880 6200
​

IFoA

About IFoA
Become an actuary
IFoA Events
About membership

Information

Privacy Policy
Terms & Conditions
Cookie Policy
Think Green

Get in touch

Contact us
Advertise with us
Subscribe to The Actuary Magazine
Contribute

The Actuary Jobs

Actuarial job search
Pensions jobs
General insurance jobs
Solvency II jobs

© 2020 The Actuary. The Actuary is published on behalf of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries by Redactive Publishing Limited, Level 5, 78 Chamber Street, London, E1 8BL. Tel: 020 7880 6200