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03

One third of 2012 babies 'will reach 100'

Open-access content Tuesday 27th March 2012 — updated 5.13pm, Wednesday 29th April 2020

Around one third of babies born in the UK this year are expected to reach 100, the Office for National Statistics said yesterday.

2

The forecasts, which are likely to increase the imperative for retirement and pensions saving, also found that more than 95,000 people aged 65 in 2012 are expected to celebrate their 100th birthday in 2047.

And the total number of centenarians is projected to rise from 14,500 in 2012 to 110,000 in 2035.

The ONS noted that a higher percentage of baby girls born in 2012 - 39% - were expected to reach 100 than baby boys (32%). At every age, females have more chance of reaching their 100th birthdays than males do.

It stressed, however, that these forecasts relied on assumptions about future mortality used in the projection, which is based on 2010 figures, being realised. The range for the number of people expected to reach 100 increases as the project is carried further into the future.

In 2012 there are 826,000 babies aged under one year, including 423,000 boys and 403,000 girls. Of these, 135,000 men and 156,000 women are expected to still be alive by age 100 (in 2112) under the principal projection.

However the numbers surviving to their 100th birthday could be as few as 19,000 men and 35,000 women (low life expectancy variant) or as many as 274,000 men and 278,000 women (high life expectancy variant).

Last week, Chancellor George Osborne used his Budget to unveil plans to automatically review the state pension age in light of increasing longevity.

This article appeared in our March 2012 issue of The Actuary.
Click here to view this issue
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