The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has released the latest annual update to the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2021.
Standardised mortality rates in England and Wales in 2021 were, on average, 5% lower than in 2020. However, both years had significantly higher mortality than before the COVID-19 pandemic. Mortality in 2021 was 8% higher than in 2019, and mortality in 2020 was 14% higher than in 2019.
CMI_2021 produces cohort life expectancies at age 65 that are about two weeks lower, for both males and females, than in the previous version of the CMI model, CMI_2020.
“While mortality can be volatile from year to year, we tend to see falls over time, so it is unusual to see such a sustained increase in mortality,” said Cobus Daneel, chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee.
“We have to go back to 1940-41 to find a period as unusual as 2020-21 relative to the preceding five-year average.
“The impact of the coronavirus pandemic has meant that we have placed no weight on 2021 mortality experience. We did the same with the 2020 core model after a consultation process, and users from the pensions and insurance industry expressed strong support for this temporary change. We encourage users to consider adjusting the model’s parameters to reflect their own portfolios and their views of the impact of the pandemic.”
For more information, please see the FAQs at bit.ly/CMI_FAQs
