I know what an earthquake feels like. At home, in Cyprus, asleep in my bed, vibrations woke me up. This is how, in some small part, I personally experienced the Turkey-Syria earthquake of 6 February. Of course, I didn’t know then that it was an event of such magnitude. Disturbed sleep for me, no big deal; but homelessness and much worse for thousands not that far away.
It’s been such a big news story and has left many of us pondering existential questions. We think, what can we do to prevent this kind of tragedy happening again? Surely, as such evolved beings, we can do something? But, frustratingly, nature still has its power over us and we still can’t predict tremors. All we can do is try our best to read the signs, be prepared, take precautions – and, as actuaries, assess the risk. For our cover story (p21), I asked two academics to explain their latest research into a new method of earthquake modelling. Could this be a big step forwards?
On the subject of needing new ways of looking at natural disasters, Mark Cliffe presents a striking argument about common climate risk scenarios (p27). He says, crucially, they are missing two huge, tricky ingredients that we all choose to ignore: real life and human nature…
While Sir Michael Marmot talks health inequalities (p12) and Stuart McDonald assesses NHS delays in relation to excess deaths (p16), more positively, an IFoA working party has been looking at how digital tools are helping with mental health problems, opening up new avenues to insurers – and actuary Hugh Sellars tells us about his life-affirming love of long-distance swimming (p41).
Yiannis Parizas, Editor
