There have been around 104,600 more deaths than would normally be expected in the UK since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has revealed.
It's latest update also shows that there 5,526 more deaths in England and Wales between 30 January and 5 February 2021 (week five) than during the corresponding week of 2019, down from the 6,324 'excess' deaths recorded over the previous seven days.
Based on data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the analysis also shows that the number of COVID-19-related deaths decreased from 8,433 in the fourth week of 2021, to 7,320 in week five.
This comes after the total number of deaths within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test passed 100,000 last month.
“The number of deaths in England & Wales with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate stands at nearly 120,000,” said Cobus Daneel, chair of the CMI's Mortality Projections Committee.
“The total impact on all-cause excess deaths is lower as there have been fewer deaths than expected from other causes during the pandemic.
“The CMI excess death measure allows for the growing and ageing population. This means that our measure is lower than would be obtained using a comparison to unadjusted five-year average death counts.”
Owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, the CMI has been publishing analysis of the UK's mortality rate during the coronavirus crisis through its mortality monitor.
It treats deaths during the pandemic as those recorded from 29 February 2020, while those in the second wave are registrations since 12 September 2020.
Of the estimated 104,600 excess deaths recorded in the UK, 43,900 have occurred in the second wave.
The latest update comes after the CMI revealed last month that the annual increase in deaths across England and Wales in 2020 was higher than in any year since the Great Depression.
However, it has said that it will place no weight on 2020 data when it releases its next model for projecting UK mortality rates, which is expected in next month.
“Once the model has been released, users will be able to adjust various model parameters to reflect their views,” Daneel said. “This will allow them to place partial or full weight on the 2020 data if they wish.”
The CMI intends to publish its next mortality update for week fix on Tuesday 23 February 2021.
Image credit: iStock
Author: Chris Seekings