CMI to modify Mortality Projections Model

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has confirmed it will modify the method used in the next version of its Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2020.

This is due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on mortality rates in England and Wales this year, which have been well outside the range of year-on-year changes seen during the past 40 years. While 2020 mortality experience will affect actuarial calculations, it is likely to be an outlier and not indicative of the future path that mortality rates will follow. For this reason, CMI_2020 will place no weight on the data for 2020 when projecting mortality rates.  

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