Skip to main content
The Actuary: The magazine of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries - return to the homepage Logo of The Actuary website
  • Search
  • Visit The Actuary Magazine on Facebook
  • Visit The Actuary Magazine on LinkedIn
  • Visit @TheActuaryMag on Twitter
Visit the website of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Logo of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

Main navigation

  • News
  • Features
    • General Features
    • Interviews
    • Students
    • Opinion
  • Topics
  • Knowledge
    • Business Skills
    • Careers
    • Events
    • Predictions by The Actuary
    • Whitepapers
    • Moody's - Climate Risk Insurers series
    • Webinars
    • Podcasts
  • Jobs
  • IFoA
    • CEO Comment
    • IFoA News
    • People & Social News
    • President Comment
  • Archive
Quick links:
  • Home
  • Sections
  • News

UK 'excess' deaths top 70,000 for 2020

Open-access content Wednesday 23rd December 2020
UK's 'excess' death toll exceeds 70,000 for 2020

UK deaths for this year have exceeded 2019 levels by more than 70,000, despite a slight decrease in recent weeks, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has found.

The CMI's latest update reveals that there were 8% more deaths in England and Wales between 5 December and 11 December 2020 (week 50) than there were during the corresponding week last year.

The increase in deaths when compared to 2019 levels – based on data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – was 12% in weeks 49 and 48, and 13% in weeks 47 and 46.

Moreover, the number of deaths with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate has decreased from 3,040 in week 48, to 2,835 in week 49, and to 2,756 in week 50.

Overall, the CMI estimates that there have been around 70,300 'excess' UK deaths between the start of the pandemic and 11 December.

“The CMI’s analysis of ONS data shows that there have been over 70,000 excess deaths," said Cobus Daneel, chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee. “About 10,000 of these have occurred in the second wave.”

Owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, the CMI has been publishing analysis of the UK's mortality rate during the coronavirus crisis through its mortality monitor.

It estimates that the cumulative mortality improvement in England and Wales for this year was -12.3% on 11 December, compared to +0.1% on 20 March.

This comes after it revealed earlier this month that it would place no weight on 2020 data when it releases its next model for projecting UK mortality rates.

This is due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on death rates, which have been well outside the range of year-on-year changes seen over the past four decades.

While 2020 data will affect actuarial calculations, the CMI said that this is likely to be an outlier, and not indicative of the future path that mortality rates will follow.

“Once the model has been released, users will be able to adjust various model parameters to reflect their views,” Daneel said. “This will allow them to place partial or full weight on the 2020 data if they wish.”

 

Image credit: iStock

Author: Chris Seekings

You may also be interested in...

Weekly excess deaths remain high but stable, CMI finds

Weekly excess deaths remain high but stable, CMI finds

There were 12% more deaths in England and Wales between 28 November and 4 December 2020 (week 49) than there were during the corresponding week last year, which was equal to the rise seen over the previous seven days.
Wednesday 16th December 2020
Open-access content
CMI to discount 2020 mortality data for next model

CMI to discount 2020 mortality data for next model

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has announced that it will place no weight on 2020 data when it releases its next model for projecting UK mortality rates.
Tuesday 15th December 2020
Open-access content
November deaths hit 10-year high

November deaths hit 10-year high

There were more deaths in England and Wales last month than in any other November over the last 10 years, according to analysis by the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI).
Wednesday 9th December 2020
Open-access content
COVID-19 vaccination support rising in US and UK

COVID-19 vaccination support rising in US and UK

The number of people willing to get a COVID-19 vaccination is rising in the US and UK, but falling in several other countries, a global survey has uncovered.
Thursday 7th January 2021
Open-access content
Inflated 'excess' deaths recorded over festive period

Inflated 'excess' deaths recorded over festive period

England and Wales registered 51% more deaths between 19 December and 25 December 2020 (week 52) than over the corresponding week in 2019, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has revealed.
Thursday 7th January 2021
Open-access content
COVID-19: UK's second wave results in over 5,000 'excess' deaths

COVID-19: UK's second wave results in over 5,000 'excess' deaths

Mortality rates in the UK have been above 2019 levels for the sixth sucessive week, with more than 5,000 'excess' deaths recorded during the country's second wave of coronavirus infections.
Wednesday 2nd December 2020
Open-access content
Also filed in
News
Topics
Health care
Share
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Linked in
  • Mail
  • Print

Latest Jobs

Senior Reserving Analyst

London (City of)
Negotiable
Reference
149485

Senior GI Modeler - Capital and Planning

London (Central)
£ excellent
Reference
149436

Risk Oversight Manager

Flexible / hybrid with a minimum of 2 days per week office-based
£ excellent
Reference
149435
See all jobs »
 
 

Today's top reads

 
 

Sign up to our newsletter

News, jobs and updates

Sign up

Subscribe to The Actuary

Receive the print edition straight to your door

Subscribe
Spread-iPad-slantB-june.png

Topics

  • Data Science
  • Investment
  • Risk & ERM
  • Pensions
  • Environment
  • Soft skills
  • General Insurance
  • Regulation Standards
  • Health care
  • Technology
  • Reinsurance
  • Global
  • Life insurance
​
FOLLOW US
The Actuary on LinkedIn
@TheActuaryMag on Twitter
Facebook: The Actuary Magazine
CONTACT US
The Actuary
Tel: (+44) 020 7880 6200
​

IFoA

About IFoA
Become an actuary
IFoA Events
About membership

Information

Privacy Policy
Terms & Conditions
Cookie Policy
Think Green

Get in touch

Contact us
Advertise with us
Subscribe to The Actuary Magazine
Contribute

The Actuary Jobs

Actuarial job search
Pensions jobs
General insurance jobs
Solvency II jobs

© 2023 The Actuary. The Actuary is published on behalf of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries by Redactive Publishing Limited. All rights reserved. Reproduction of any part is not allowed without written permission.

Redactive Media Group Ltd, 71-75 Shelton Street, London WC2H 9JQ