There were 12% more deaths in England and Wales between 28 November and 4 December 2020 (week 49) than there were during the corresponding week last year, which was equal to the rise seen over the previous seven days.
That is according to the latest update from the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI), which said that 'excess' deaths remain “high but stable”.
The increase in deaths when compared to 2019 levels was 13% in week 47 and 46, 9% in week 45, 6% in both 44 and 43, and 2% in week 42.
The number of COVID-19-related deaths increased from under 100 in week 37, to 3,040 in week 48, but decreased to 2,835 in week 49, which was the first fall recorded during the UK's second coronavirus wave.
“The number of deaths with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate has fallen for the first time since early September,” said Cobus Daneel, chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee. “However, excess deaths remain fairly stable at around 1,500 per week.”
Owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, the CMI has been publishing analysis of the UK's mortality rate during the coronavirus crisis through its mortality monitor, based on data from the Office for National Statistics.
It estimates that there were around 69,500 more deaths in the UK between the start of the pandemic and 4 December 2020 when compared to mortality rates for 2019.
The CMI also estimates that the cumulative mortality improvement in England and Wales for this year was -12% on 4 December, compared to +0.1% on 20 March.
This comes after it revealed earlier in the week that it would place no weight on 2020 data when it releases its next model for projecting UK mortality rates.
“Once the model has been released, users will be able to adjust various model parameters to reflect their views,” Daneel said. “This will allow them to place partial or full weight on the 2020 data if they wish.”
Image credit: iStock
Author: Chris Seekings