Mortality rates in England and Wales have been above 2019 levels for the fourth successive week, analysis by the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has found.
The CMI's latest mortality update shows that there were 9% more deaths between 31 October and 6 November 2020 (week 45) than there were over the corresponding week in 2019.
The increase was 6% in both week 44 and 43, and 2% in week 42, with the number of deaths with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate rising from under 100 in week 37, to 1,937 in week 45.
Based on data from the Office for National Statistics, the CMI now estimates that there have been around 63,200 'excess' deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic.
Cobus Daneel, chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: "Excess deaths are increasing week-by-week, but the rate of increase is more gradual than during the first wave.”
Owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, the CMI has been publishing analysis of the UK's mortality rate during the coronavirus crisis through its mortality monitor.
It estimates that the cumulative mortality improvement in England and Wales for 2020 was -10.9% on 6 November, compared to +0.1% on 20 March.
The latest figures for excess deaths contrast sharply with the figures for weeks 38, 39, 40 and 41, when mortality was slightly lower than expected.
The CMI also revealed last month that the number of deaths in England and Wales between July and September of 2020 was lower than in any other quarter on record.
It intends to publish its next mortality monitor for week 46 on 24 November 2020.
Image credit: iStock
Author: Chris Seekings
