The UK has suffered around 64,000 more deaths since the start of the coronavirus pandemic than it did during the same period last year, analysis by the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) suggests.
The CMI's latest weekly mortality update, based on data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), shows that there could have been between 62,000 and 66,000 excess deaths by 25 May 2020.
It also reveals that there were 40% more deaths registered in England & Wales between 9 May and 15 May (week 20) than if standardised mortality rates had been the same as in the corresponding period for 2019.
This is up from the 38% rise recorded in week 19 – although the timing of Victory in Europe (VE) Day distorted the true number of deaths for that week – but down on the 58% increase recorded in week 18.
Cobus Daneel, chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “The latest ONS data shows an increase in ‘excess’ weekly deaths. This is due to the timing of the VE Day anniversary bank holiday which masks the downward trend we’ve seen since week 16.”
Owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, the CMI has been publishing weekly UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor during the coronavirus crisis.
Its latest update estimates that the cumulative mortality improvement in England & Wales for 2020 was −10.3% on 15 May 2020, compared to +0.1% on 20 March before coronavirus had a material impact
The excess death toll comprises 59,000 excess deaths since the start of the pandemic and 15 May 2020, and a further 3,000 to 7,000 by 25 May 2020.
“Anyone using the results of the mortality monitor should ensure that it is appropriate for their particular use,” the CMI said. “Care is needed when estimating full year experience from partial year experience. This is particularly true during the coronavirus pandemic.”
Author: Chris Seekings
Image credit: iStock
