Skip to main content
The Actuary: The magazine of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries - return to the homepage Logo of The Actuary website
  • Search
  • Visit The Actuary Magazine on Facebook
  • Visit The Actuary Magazine on LinkedIn
  • Visit @TheActuaryMag on Twitter
Visit the website of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Logo of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

Main navigation

  • News
  • Features
    • General Features
    • Interviews
    • Students
    • Opinion
  • Topics
  • Knowledge
    • Business Skills
    • Careers
    • Events
    • Predictions by The Actuary
    • Whitepapers
    • Moody's - Climate Risk Insurers series
    • Webinars
    • Podcasts
  • Jobs
  • IFoA
    • CEO Comment
    • IFoA News
    • People & Social News
    • President Comment
  • Archive
Quick links:
  • Home
  • Sections
  • News

Fall in excess UK deaths exaggerated by VE Day, CMI warns

Open-access content Wednesday 20th May 2020

_iStock-1223815848_0.jpg

The timing of Victory in Europe (VE) Day masked the true number of coronavirus deaths in the UK over week 19 of this year, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has warned.

The CMI's latest weekly mortality update, based on data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), shows 38% more deaths in England and Wales between 2 May and 8 May than during the same period last year.

This is down from the 58% increase recorded in week 18, and 116% rise for week 17. However, there were just 88 deaths registered on this year's VE Day bank holiday on Friday 8 May, compared to 2,950 seven days earlier.

If a public holiday falls on a Friday, then deaths cannot typically be registered until the following week, and the CMI said that the latest figures suggest that few register offices were open on VE Day.

Cobus Daneel, chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “The latest figures released by the ONS show a significant decline in ‘excess’ weekly deaths, although the fall in week 19 has been exaggerated by the timing of the VE Day bank holiday. Most excess deaths not reported in week 19 will be registered in week 20.”

Owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, the CMI has been publishing weekly UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor during the coronavirus crisis. 

The latest update suggests that there could have been 57,000 to 64,000 excess registered deaths in the UK between the start of the pandemic and 18 May 2020. 

It shows that the cumulative mortality improvement in England & Wales for 2020 was –9.4% at 8 May 2020, compared to +0.1% at 20 March 2020 before coronavirus had a material impact.

More recent data issued by Public Health England (PHE) and the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) for later periods suggests that this will fall further over the coming weeks.

“Our calculations rely on data for registered deaths, and we are conscious that in recent weeks deaths may have been registered earlier or later than in previous years,” the CMI said. “Consequently, comparisons of mortality between 2020 and earlier years may not be on a like-for-like basis.”

 

Author: Chris Seekings

Image credit: iStock

 

 

Also filed in
News
Topics
Health care

You might also like...

Share
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Linked in
  • Mail
  • Print

Latest Jobs

Life Reinsurance – Client Manager/Senior Manager

London (Central)
£ excellent + bonus + benefits
Reference
143661

Life Actuarial Analyst

South East / hybrid with 3 days per week office-based
£ dependent upon experience
Reference
143660

Investment Associate Consultant

Flexible / hybrid
£ dependent upon experience
Reference
143659
See all jobs »
 
 

Today's top reads

 
 

Sign up to our newsletter

News, jobs and updates

Sign up

Subscribe to The Actuary

Receive the print edition straight to your door

Subscribe
Spread-iPad-slantB-june.png

Topics

  • Data Science
  • Investment
  • Risk & ERM
  • Pensions
  • Environment
  • Soft skills
  • General Insurance
  • Regulation Standards
  • Health care
  • Technology
  • Reinsurance
  • Global
  • Life insurance
​
FOLLOW US
The Actuary on LinkedIn
@TheActuaryMag on Twitter
Facebook: The Actuary Magazine
CONTACT US
The Actuary
Tel: (+44) 020 7880 6200
​

IFoA

About IFoA
Become an actuary
IFoA Events
About membership

Information

Privacy Policy
Terms & Conditions
Cookie Policy
Think Green

Get in touch

Contact us
Advertise with us
Subscribe to The Actuary Magazine
Contribute

The Actuary Jobs

Actuarial job search
Pensions jobs
General insurance jobs
Solvency II jobs

© 2023 The Actuary. The Actuary is published on behalf of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries by Redactive Publishing Limited. All rights reserved. Reproduction of any part is not allowed without written permission.

Redactive Media Group Ltd, 71-75 Shelton Street, London WC2H 9JQ